24 months of search data show when building materials marketing teams should spend on paid search

US searches for deck railing ran to 40,611 in May 2026, up from 8,899 in December 2025, according to Ahrefs Keywords Explorer estimates we pulled on Oct. 29, 2026. That is a ratio of 4.56 from the low month to the high one. From October 2025 to September 2026, searches for heat pump, a product people look up for both heating and cooling, ranged from 54,487 in September 2026 to 80,239 in January 2026, a ratio of 1.47, with the peak in winter instead of spring. A building materials marketing team can use the difference between those two ratios to decide how to spread its paid search budget across the year.

All eight outdoor terms we kept fell to their low in December 2025, as they had in December 2024, and peaked in May 2026, so makers of those products can let a seasonal budget follow the searches. Heat pump searches peak in January with a second rise in summer, and searches for spray foam insulation dip in spring. Of the 11 commercial and spec terms we pulled, only one passed our tests, so if architects specify your products, set monthly weights from your own campaigns.

What search data can a building materials marketing team use to plan paid search by month?

We pulled monthly US search volume for 27 building products terms from Ahrefs for October 2024 through September 2026 and split it into two 12-month years, each starting in October. For each term and year we found the highest month, the lowest month and the ratio between them.

These are modeled estimates of Google searches. Ahrefs says it combines “Google Keyword Planner (GKP), Google trends data and other third party data sources” to estimate monthly volume and that search volume in any tool “is always an estimation.” We use the figures for the shape of the year and treat individual monthly counts as approximate.

We kept a term only if both years told the same story and the second year was a separate reading, which we checked with four tests. The second year’s ratio had to be between 0.70 and 1.43 times the first year’s, the peak month could move by no more than three months, and the low month by no more than two. For the fourth, we compared each month with the same month a year later and dropped any term where the change was nearly the same in all 12 months. Before running the tests, we set aside terms that averaged under 1,000 searches a month in either year, since a few hundred searches can make a small term’s month look like a peak. Eleven of the 27 terms passed.

We sorted the 11 into three groups. Residential outdoor terms are exterior or yard products bought mostly for homes (eight terms). Residential heating and insulation covers heat pump and spray foam insulation. Commercial and spec terms are products usually written into an architect’s or engineer’s specification for nonresidential buildings, and only one of them, hollow metal doors, passed.

Term	Group	Ratio, Oct. 2024 to Sep. 2025	Ratio, Oct. 2025 to Sep. 2026	Peak month, 2025 to 2026	Low month, 2025 to 2026	Ahrefs CPC estimate
Deck railing	Residential outdoor	3.71	4.56	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.80
Retaining wall blocks	Residential outdoor	3.88	4.10	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.25
Composite decking	Residential outdoor	3.92	3.30	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.60
Concrete pavers	Residential outdoor	2.94	3.25	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.20
Vinyl fence	Residential outdoor	3.00	2.35	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.90
Vinyl siding	Residential outdoor	2.63	1.96	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$1.30
Roofing shingles	Residential outdoor	1.88	1.74	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.60
Storm doors	Residential outdoor	1.88	1.65	May 2026	Dec. 2025	$0.20
Heat pump	Residential heating and insulation	1.68	1.47	Jan. 2026	Sep. 2026	$1.70
Spray foam insulation	Residential heating and insulation	1.49	1.27	Dec. 2025	May 2026	$1.20
Hollow metal doors	Commercial and spec	1.88	1.69	Jun. 2026	Dec. 2025	$3.50

Table 1. Ratio of the highest month’s estimated US Google searches to the lowest month’s, for the 11 terms that passed our four tests. CPC is Ahrefs’ single current estimate of the average cost per click, not a monthly figure. Source: Plant to Pipeline analysis of Ahrefs Keywords Explorer data, US, October 2024 to September 2026, pulled Oct. 29, 2026.

Which terms did we leave out, and why?

Seven terms had a second year that looked much flatter than the first, so their ratios fell outside our band. Commercial roofing went from 4.10 to 1.22, fiber cement siding from 3.33 to 1.24, replacement windows from 2.65 to 1.58, patio doors from 2.45 to 1.38, metal roofing from 2.32 to 1.35, TPO roofing from 2.06 to 1.22 and gutter guards from 3.24 to 2.15. In each, the second year’s low sits well above the first year’s; fiber cement siding’s December figure rose from 8,989 to 23,799. A change in buyer behavior that large in one year is less likely than a change in how the estimates were built, so we left these terms out instead of guessing which year is right.

Insulated metal panels and quartz countertops failed because the peak moved: insulated metal panels from September 2025 to April 2026, quartz countertops from July 2025 to March 2026. Architectural louvers, storefront systems and raised access flooring averaged under 1,000 searches a month, below our floor for testing.

Four commercial terms failed the separate-reading test. For commercial doors, every month of the second year is exactly 15 searches lower than the same month of the first. Commercial flooring runs 51 to 52 searches higher in every month, curtain wall 1.0% to 1.1% higher and acoustic ceiling tiles 0.1% to 0.5% lower. Among the other 23 terms, the closest match is roofing shingles, which ranged from 10.8% lower to 6.4% higher. The four repeat their first-year shape, so their two ratios are identical (1.18, 1.18, 1.35 and 1.21). We have not confirmed with Ahrefs why these estimates repeat.

When do outdoor building products searches peak and bottom out?

All eight residential outdoor terms hit their low in December in both years, and all eight peaked in May 2026. We indexed each month to the term’s 12-month average (1.00 is an average month) and averaged the index across the eight. From October 2025 to September 2026 the group fell to 0.56 in December, rose from 0.68 in February to 1.07 in March and peaked at 1.48 in May. The year before followed nearly the same path, with a December low of 0.50 and a May high of 1.36.

Searches vs. 12-month average

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Oct. 2024Apr. 2025Oct. 2025Mar. 2026Sep. 2026

Averaged across eight outdoor terms, searches bottom out in December and peak in May

	Searches vs. 12-month average
Oct. 2024	0.88
Nov. 2024	0.68
Dec. 2024	0.5
Jan. 2025	0.57
Feb. 2025	0.67
Mar. 2025	1.16
Apr. 2025	1.31
May 2025	1.36
Jun. 2025	1.35
Jul. 2025	1.29
Aug. 2025	1.16
Sep. 2025	1.07
Oct. 2025	0.89
Nov. 2025	0.72
Dec. 2025	0.56
Jan. 2026	0.62
Feb. 2026	0.68
Mar. 2026	1.07
Apr. 2026	1.38
May 2026	1.48
Jun. 2026	1.36
Jul. 2026	1.17
Aug. 2026	1.06
Sep. 2026	1.01

Estimated US Google searches for eight residential outdoor building products terms (deck railing, retaining wall blocks, composite decking, concrete pavers, vinyl fence, vinyl siding, roofing shingles and storm doors), each month indexed to that term's own 12-month average and then averaged across the eight. Source: Plant to Pipeline analysis of Ahrefs Keywords Explorer modeled estimates, US, pulled Oct. 29, 2026.

The step from February to March is the largest single change. Retaining wall blocks rose from 20,227 searches in February 2026 to 42,945 in March, and composite decking from 28,279 to 55,142.

The two residential heating and insulation terms follow a different calendar. Heat pump searches peaked in January in both years, at 87,363 in January 2025 and 80,239 in January 2026, and bottomed in September. Because heat pumps also cool, searches rise again in summer: July 2025 (80,927) was the second-highest month of its year and June 2026 (69,763) the third-highest. Spray foam insulation peaked in January 2025 and December 2025 and bottomed in spring, in April 2025 and May 2026, with the smallest swing of the 11 terms (1.49 and 1.27); every month of both years fell between 0.78 and 1.16 times its 12-month average. A heat pump budget should plan for a winter peak and a smaller summer rise, and a spray foam insulation budget can stay close to even, with less in April and May.

What can search data tell spec-driven building products makers?

Of the 11 commercial and spec terms we pulled, 10 failed for the reasons above: four repeat their first year, three are too small, one peak moved and two changed ratio. Hollow metal doors, the one usable term, averaged 1,012 searches a month in the first year and 1,122 in the second. Its lows came in November 2024 (741) and December 2025 (836), its peaks in August 2025 (1,392) and June 2026 (1,416), and searches rose from 847 in February 2026 to 1,333 in March 2026. With ratios of 1.88 and 1.69, hollow metal doors does not look flat. One term at that volume cannot show how spec searches behave, so we draw no general conclusion about spec-driven demand from it. Its CPC estimate of $3.50 is the highest of the 11 terms we kept.

Our view, which the search data does not test, is that spec work runs on the design calendar, and design billings say more about your next year than category searches do; see our read on the architectural billings index for building products. We would also use the winter months to improve what architects use when they write a spec: an AIA continuing education course, current three-part specification sections, BIM objects and details that download without a form. Our guide on how to get specified by architects covers each of those. For paid search timing, test against your own account data, as the last section describes.

How should a building materials marketing team set monthly paid search budgets?

Use the index as your budget weight. Take each month’s searches for your core terms, divide by the 12-month average and multiply by your average monthly budget. On a $60,000 annual budget, which is $5,000 a month, the outdoor group’s weights for October 2025 to September 2026 would put $2,800 in December and $7,400 in May.

We would make four adjustments before using the weights.

1. Average two years of data before setting weights, so one odd month does not set the plan.
2. Raise budgets in the last two weeks of February for outdoor lines, ahead of the March step, so campaigns are running at full budget when searches jump.
3. Keep a floor in winter for brand, dealer-locator and product-name searches, which people still run when they are planning a spring project.
4. Watch whether campaigns hit their daily budget cap in April and May. A capped campaign misses searches in the months when they are most plentiful.

If you are building the full-year plan now, the paid search weights slot into the budget section of our one-page 2027 marketing plan, and our read on the NAHB builder confidence index covers the residential demand side for the first quarter of 2027.

How do I check my own account’s seasonality?

Your own campaigns reflect your product names, regions and dealers better than category terms can, and for spec products they are the only guide this data leaves you.

1. In Google Ads, run a campaign report for the last 24 months segmented by month, and look at impressions, search impression share and cost per conversion. Months where impression share fell because of budget are months you underspent against demand.
2. Enter your 10 to 20 core terms in Keyword Planner and download monthly searches, then index them as above.
3. Set the Search Console date range to the last 16 months. Google’s own guide to debugging traffic drops recommends that view to check whether a drop “happens every year due to a festivity or a trend,” and suggests the Search Analytics API or bulk export to see further back.
4. Do not use Google Ads seasonality adjustments for the spring season. Google’s help page on seasonality adjustments describes them as a tool for short events of one to seven days, says they “may not work as well” for periods of more than 14 days, and notes that “Smart Bidding already manages seasonal events.” Change budgets month by month instead.

If your campaigns also cover industrial or job shop terms, our look at Google Ads for manufacturers covers how those auctions differ. Then set next year’s monthly weights from your own 24 months, and check outdoor or heating lines against the patterns above before the February ramp.